Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Oct 25th, 2023

Lee Welbanks • October 25, 2023

Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues quantitative tightening.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

October 25, 2023

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

The global economy is slowing and growth is forecast to moderate further as past increases in policy rates and the recent surge in global bond yields weigh on demand. The Bank projects global GDP growth of 2.9% this year, 2.3% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025. While this global growth outlook is little changed from the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), the composition has shifted, with the US economy proving stronger and economic activity in China weaker than expected. Growth in the euro area has slowed further. Inflation has been easing in most economies, as supply bottlenecks resolve and weaker demand relieves price pressures. However, with underlying inflation persisting, central banks continue to be vigilant. Oil prices are higher than was assumed in July, and the war in Israel and Gaza is a new source of geopolitical uncertainty.

In Canada, there is growing evidence that past interest rate increases are dampening economic activity and relieving price pressures. Consumption has been subdued, with softer demand for housing, durable goods and many services. Weaker demand and higher borrowing costs are weighing on business investment. The surge in Canada’s population is easing labour market pressures in some sectors while adding to housing demand and consumption. In the labour market, recent job gains have been below labour force growth and job vacancies have continued to ease. However, the labour market remains on the tight side and wage pressures persist. Overall, a range of indicators suggest that supply and demand in the economy are now approaching balance.

After averaging 1% over the past year, economic growth is expected to continue to be weak for the next year before increasing in late 2024 and through 2025. The near-term weakness in growth reflects both the broadening impact of past increases in interest rates and slower foreign demand. The subsequent pickup is driven by household spending as well as stronger exports and business investment in response to improving foreign demand. Spending by governments contributes materially to growth over the forecast horizon. Overall, the Bank expects the Canadian economy to grow by 1.2% this year, 0.9% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025.

CPI inflation has been volatile in recent months—2.8% in June, 4.0% in August, and 3.8% in September. Higher interest rates are moderating inflation in many goods that people buy on credit, and this is spreading to services. Food inflation is easing from very high rates. However, in addition to elevated mortgage interest costs, inflation in rent and other housing costs remains high. Near-term inflation expectations and corporate pricing behaviour are normalizing only gradually, and wages are still growing around 4% to 5%. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation show little downward momentum.

In the Bank’s October projection, CPI inflation is expected to average about 3½% through the middle of next year before gradually easing to 2% in 2025. Inflation returns to target about the same time as in the July projection, but the near-term path is higher because of energy prices and ongoing persistence in core inflation.

With clearer signs that monetary policy is moderating spending and relieving price pressures, Governing Council decided to hold the policy rate at 5% and to continue to normalize the Bank’s balance sheet. However, Governing Council is concerned that progress towards price stability is slow and inflationary risks have increased, and is prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed. Governing Council wants to see downward momentum in core inflation, and continues to be focused on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth and corporate pricing behaviour. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is December 6, 2023. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR on January 24, 2024.

Read the October 25th, 2023 Monetary Policy Report.

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Lee Welbanks

Co-Signing a Mortgage in Canada: Pros, Cons & What to Expect

By Lee Welbanks • February 11, 2026

Co-Signing a Mortgage in Canada: Pros, Cons & What to Expect Thinking about co-signing a mortgage? On the surface, it might seem like a simple way to help someone you care about achieve homeownership. But before you sign on the dotted line, it’s important to understand exactly what co-signing means—for them and for you. You’re Fully Responsible When you co-sign, your name is on the mortgage—and that makes you just as responsible as the primary borrower. If payments are missed, the lender won’t only go after them; they’ll come after you too. Missed payments or default can damage your credit score and put your financial health at risk. That’s why trust is key. If you’re going to co-sign, make sure you have a clear picture of the borrower’s ability to manage payments—and consider monitoring the account to protect yourself. You’re Committed Until They Can Stand Alone Co-signing isn’t temporary by default. Even once the initial mortgage term ends, you won’t automatically be removed. The borrower has to re-qualify on their own, and only then can your name be taken off. If they don’t qualify, you stay on the mortgage for another term. Before agreeing, talk openly about expectations: How long might you be on the mortgage? What’s the plan for eventually removing you? Having these conversations upfront prevents surprises later. It Affects Your Own Borrowing Power When lenders calculate your debt service ratios, the co-signed mortgage counts as your debt—even if you never make a payment on it. This could reduce how much you’re able to borrow in the future, whether it’s for your own home, an investment property, or even refinancing. If you see another mortgage in your future, you’ll want to consider how co-signing could limit your options. The Upside: Helping Someone Get Ahead On the positive side, co-signing can be life-changing for the borrower. You could be helping a family member or friend buy their first home, start building equity, or take an important step forward financially. If handled with clear expectations and trust, it can be a meaningful way to support someone you care about. The Bottom Line Co-signing a mortgage comes with both risks and rewards. It’s not a decision to take lightly, but with careful planning, transparency, and professional advice, it can be done responsibly. If you’re considering co-signing—or want to explore safer alternatives—let’s connect. I’d be happy to walk you through what to expect and help you decide if it’s the right move for you.

Why a Mortgage Pre-Approval Protects Both Your Head and Your Heart

By Lee Welbanks • February 4, 2026

Why a Mortgage Pre-Approval Protects Both Your Head and Your Heart There’s no denying it—buying a home is an emotional journey. In a competitive market, it can feel like you need to stretch beyond your comfort zone or bid above asking just to have a chance. That pressure can make it hard to separate what you want from what you can realistically afford. One of the biggest pitfalls buyers face is falling in love with a home that’s outside their price range. Once that happens, every other property seems like a compromise—even the ones that might have been a perfect fit otherwise. The best way to avoid this heartache? Get pre-approved before you start shopping. What a Pre-Approval Does for You A mortgage pre-approval gives you more than just a number—it provides clarity, confidence, and protection: Know your buying power : Shop within your true price range and avoid disappointment. Spot potential roadblocks : Uncover issues like credit bureau errors before you make an offer. Get organized : Learn exactly what documentation you’ll need so there are no surprises. Lock in a rate : Many lenders hold your rate for 30–120 days, giving you peace of mind if rates rise. Save yourself heartache : Protect yourself from falling for a home you can’t afford. Head vs. Heart Buying a home is about balance. Your head tells you what’s financially sound, your heart tells you what feels right—and both matter. A pre-approval helps bring those two sides together, so you can make confident choices without emotional stress clouding your judgment. The Bottom Line Looking at properties for fun is one thing—but if you’re serious about buying, a pre-approval is the smartest first step you can take. It sets realistic expectations, saves time, and protects your emotions along the way. If you’d like to explore your options and get pre-approved, I’d be happy to walk through the process with you. Let’s make sure you’re ready to shop with confidence.