Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Oct 23rd, 2024

Lee Welbanks • October 23, 2024

Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 50 basis points to 3¾%.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

October 23, 2024

The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 3¾%, with the Bank Rate at 4% and the deposit rate at 3¾%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization.

The Bank continues to expect the global economy to expand at a rate of about 3% over the next two years. Growth in the United States is now expected to be stronger than previously forecast while the outlook for China remains subdued. Growth in the euro area has been soft but should recover modestly next year. Inflation in advanced economies has declined in recent months, and is now around central bank targets. Global financial conditions have eased since July, in part because of market expectations of lower policy interest rates. Global oil prices are about $10 lower than assumed in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR).

In Canada, the economy grew at around 2% in the first half of the year and we expect growth of 1¾% in the second half. Consumption has continued to grow but is declining on a per person basis. Exports have been boosted by the opening of the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline. The labour market remains soft—the unemployment rate was at 6.5% in September. Population growth has continued to expand the labour force while hiring has been modest. This has particularly affected young people and newcomers to Canada. Wage growth remains elevated relative to productivity growth. Overall, the economy continues to be in excess supply.

GDP growth is forecast to strengthen gradually over the projection horizon, supported by lower interest rates. This forecast largely reflects the net effect of a gradual pick up in consumer spending per person and slower population growth. Residential investment growth is also projected to rise as strong demand for housing lifts sales and spending on renovations. Business investment is expected to strengthen as demand picks up, and exports should remain strong, supported by robust demand from the United States.

Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.2% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 2.3% in 2026. As the economy strengthens, excess supply is gradually absorbed.

CPI inflation has declined significantly from 2.7% in June to 1.6% in September. Inflation in shelter costs remains elevated but has begun to ease. Excess supply elsewhere in the economy has reduced inflation in the prices of many goods and services. The drop in global oil prices has led to lower gasoline prices. These factors have all combined to bring inflation down. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation are now below 2½%. With inflationary pressures no longer broad-based, business and consumer inflation expectations have largely normalized.

The Bank expects inflation to remain close to the target over the projection horizon, with the upward and downward pressures on inflation roughly balancing out. The upward pressure from shelter and other services gradually diminishes, and the downward pressure on inflation recedes as excess supply in the economy is absorbed.

With inflation now back around the 2% target, Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate by 50 basis points to support economic growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1% to 3% range. If the economy evolves broadly in line with our latest forecast, we expect to reduce the policy rate further. However, the timing and pace of further reductions in the policy rate will be guided by incoming information and our assessment of its implications for the inflation outlook. We will take decisions one meeting at a time. The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is December 11, 2024. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR on January 29, 2025.

Read the October 23rd, 2024 Monetary Report.

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Lee Welbanks

Why The Subject Property Matters

By Lee Welbanks • February 19, 2025

When looking to qualify for a mortgage, typically, a lender will want to review four areas of your mortgage application: income, credit, downpayment/equity and the property itself. Assuming you have a great job, excellent credit, and sufficient money in the bank to qualify for a mortgage, if the property you’re looking to purchase isn’t in good condition, if you don't have a plan, you might get some pushback from the lender. The property matters to the lender because they hold it as collateral if you default on your mortgage. As such, you can expect that a lender will make every effort to ensure that any property they finance is in good repair. Because in the rare case that you happen to default on your mortgage, they want to know that if they have to repossess, they can sell the property quickly and recoup their money. So when assessing the property as part of any mortgage transaction, an appraisal is always required to establish value. If your mortgage requires default mortgage insurance through CMHC, Sagen (formerly Genworth), or Canada Guaranty, they’ll likely use an automated system to appraise the property where the assessment happens online. A physical appraisal is required for conventional mortgage applications, which means an appraiser will assess the property on-site. So why is this important to know? Well, because even if you have a great job, excellent credit, and money in the bank, you shouldn’t assume that you’ll be guaranteed mortgage financing. A preapproval can only take you so far. Once the mortgage process has started, the lender will always assess the property you’re looking to purchase. Understanding this ahead of time prevents misunderstandings and will bring clarity to the mortgage process. Practically applied, if you’re attempting to buy a property in a hot housing market and you go in with an offer without a condition of financing, once the appraisal is complete, if the lender isn’t satisfied with the state or value of the property, you could lose your deposit. Now, what happens if you’d like to purchase a property that isn’t in the best condition? Being proactive includes knowing that there is a purchase plus improvements program that can allow you to buy a property and include some of the cost of the renovations in the mortgage. It’s not as simple as just increasing the mortgage amount and then getting the work done, there’s a process to follow, but it’s very doable. So if you have any questions about financing your next property or potentially using a purchase plus improvements to buy a property that needs a little work, please connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to walk you through the process.

Parental Leave

By Lee Welbanks • February 12, 2025

Chances are if the title of this article piqued your interest enough to get you here, your family is probably growing. Congratulations! If you’ve thought now is the time to find a new property to accommodate your growing family, but you’re unsure how your parental leave will impact your ability to get a mortgage, you’ve come to the right place! Here’s how it works. When you work with an independent mortgage professional, it won’t be a problem to qualify your income on a mortgage application while on parental leave, as long as you have documentation proving that you have guaranteed employment when you return to work. A word of caution, if you walk into your local bank to look for a mortgage and you disclose that you’re currently collecting parental leave, there’s a chance they’ll only allow you to use that income to qualify. This reduction in income isn’t ideal because at 55% of your previous income up to $595/week, you won’t be eligible to borrow as much, limiting your options. The advantage of working with an independent mortgage professional is choice. You have a choice between lenders and mortgage products, including lenders who use 100% of your return-to-work income. To qualify, you’ll need an employment letter from your current employer that states the following: Your employer’s name preferably on the company letterhead Your position Your initial start date to ensure you’ve passed any probationary period Your scheduled return to work date Your guaranteed salary For a lender to feel confident about your ability to cover your mortgage payments, they want to see that you have a position waiting for you once your parental leave is over. You might also be required to provide a history of your income for the past couple of years, but that is typical of mortgage financing. Whether you intend to return to work after your parental leave is over or not, once the mortgage is in place, what you decide to do is entirely up to you. Mortgage qualification requires only that you have a position waiting for you. If you have any questions about this or anything else mortgage-related, please connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to work with you.