Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Apr 10th, 2024

Lee Welbanks • April 10, 2024

Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues quantitative tightening.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

April 10, 2024

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

The Bank expects the global economy to continue growing at a rate of about 3%, with inflation in most advanced economies easing gradually. The US economy has again proven stronger than anticipated, buoyed by resilient consumption and robust business and government spending. US GDP growth is expected to slow in the second half of this year, but remain stronger than forecast in January. The euro area is projected to gradually recover from current weak growth. Global oil prices have moved up, averaging about $5 higher than assumed in the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Since January, bond yields have increased but, with narrower corporate credit spreads and sharply higher equity markets, overall financial conditions have eased.

The Bank has revised up its forecast for global GDP growth to 2¾% in 2024 and about 3% in 2025 and 2026. Inflation continues to slow across most advanced economies, although progress will likely be bumpy. Inflation rates are projected to reach central bank targets in 2025.

In Canada, economic growth stalled in the second half of last year and the economy moved into excess supply. A broad range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions continue to ease. Employment has been growing more slowly than the working-age population and the unemployment rate has risen gradually, reaching 6.1% in March. There are some recent signs that wage pressures are moderating.

Economic growth is forecast to pick up in 2024. This largely reflects both strong population growth and a recovery in spending by households. Residential investment is strengthening, responding to continued robust demand for housing. The contribution to growth from spending by governments has also increased. Business investment is projected to recover gradually after considerable weakness in the second half of last year. The Bank expects exports to continue to grow solidly through 2024.

Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.5% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025, and 1.9% in 2026. The strengthening economy will gradually absorb excess supply through 2025 and into 2026.

CPI inflation slowed to 2.8% in February, with easing in price pressures becoming more broad-based across goods and services. However, shelter price inflation is still very elevated, driven by growth in rent and mortgage interest costs. Core measures of inflation, which had been running around 3½%, slowed to just over 3% in February, and 3-month annualized rates are suggesting downward momentum. The Bank expects CPI inflation to be close to 3% during the first half of this year, move below 2½% in the second half, and reach the 2% inflation target in 2025.

Based on the outlook, Governing Council decided to hold the policy rate at 5% and to continue to normalize the Bank’s balance sheet. While inflation is still too high and risks remain, CPI and core inflation have eased further in recent months. The Council will be looking for evidence that this downward momentum is sustained. Governing Council is particularly watching the evolution of core inflation, and continues to focus on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is June 5, 2024. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR on July 24, 2024.

Read the April 10th, 2024 Monetary Policy Report

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Lee Welbanks

What You Need To Know About Online Mortgage Calculators

By Lee Welbanks • January 8, 2025

You’d think an online calculator is a pretty straightforward device, one that you should be able to place your confidence in, and for the most part, they are. Calculators calculate numbers. The numbers are reliable, but how you interpret those numbers, not so much, especially if the goal is mortgage qualification. If you rely on the numbers from a “What can I afford” or “Mortgage Qualification” calculator without talking to an independent mortgage professional, you’re going to be misinformed. Don’t be fooled. Even though an online mortgage calculator can help you calculate mortgage payments or help you assess how additional payments would impact your amortization, they’ll never be able to give you an exact picture of what you can afford and how a lender will consider your mortgage application. While mortgage calculators are objective, mortgage lending isn’t. It’s 100% subjective. Lenders consider your financial situation, employment, credit history, assets, liabilities, the property you are looking to purchase. Then, they will compare that with whatever internal risk profile they are currently using to assess mortgage lending. Simply put, they don’t just look at the numbers. An online calculator is a great tool to help you run different financial scenarios and help assess your comfort level with different payment schedules and mortgage amounts. However, if you rely on an online calculator for mortgage qualification purposes, you’ll be disappointed. The first step in the mortgage qualification process is a preapproval. A preapproval will examine all the variables on your application, assess your financial situation, and provide you with a framework to buy a property based on your unique circumstance. Securing a preapproval comes at no cost to you and without any obligation to buy. It’ll simply allow you the freedom to move ahead with confidence, knowing exactly where you stand. Something a calculator is unable to do. Please connect anytime if you’d like to talk more about your financial situation and get a preapproval started. It would be a pleasure to work with you.

Mortgage Insurance Rule Changes Enable Homeowners to Add Secondary Suites

By Welbanks Mortgage Group • January 2, 2025

As housing affordability challenges persist across Canada, innovative solutions are reshaping the way homeowners can contribute to housing supply. Starting January 15, 2025, new mortgage insurance rule changes will allow Canadian homeowners to access insured refinancing options to create secondary suites, such as basement apartments or laneway homes. This move, announced in Budget 2024 and detailed by the Department of Finance Canada, is part of a broader strategy to increase housing density and improve affordability while offering homeowners the chance to generate additional income. Why These Changes Matter Historically, converting extra space into rental units has been both costly and mired in municipal red tape. Recent zoning reforms across Canada’s major cities, driven by Housing Accelerator Fund agreements, are reducing these barriers. The creation of secondary suites not only expands housing supply but also provides financial benefits to homeowners, such as offering seniors additional income to support aging in place. Key Parameters for the New Rules The new mortgage insurance program is designed to enable homeowners to build legal, self-contained secondary suites that comply with municipal requirements. Here are the essential details: Eligibility Requirements Homeowners must already own the property. The homeowner or a close relative must occupy one of the existing units. Additional units must not be used as short-term rentals. Project Specifications New units must be fully self-contained with separate entrances (e.g., basement suites, laneway homes). Up to four total dwelling units are allowed, including existing units. Financial Parameters The “as improved” property value must be less than $2 million. Homeowners can refinance up to 90% of the property’s value, including the enhanced value from secondary suites. The maximum amortization period is 30 years. Additional financing must not exceed the project’s costs. When Do These Rules Take Effect? Starting January 15, 2025, lenders can submit applications for mortgage insurance under these updated parameters. This applies to all eligible properties across Canada, provided the new units align with municipal zoning requirements. What This Means for Homeowners For homeowners with underutilized space, such as basements or detached garages, this new program offers an opportunity to increase property value and create a source of long-term income. By building legal secondary suites, homeowners can contribute to Canada’s rental housing market while gaining financial security. A Step Toward Housing Solutions As housing supply remains a pressing issue, these mortgage insurance changes reflect a commitment to practical, homeowner-driven solutions. Whether you’re a senior looking to age in place or a family seeking to maximize your property’s potential, these changes represent an exciting opportunity to invest in your home and your community. Stay informed and explore your options with your lender to determine if this program is right for you. The path to unlocking your property’s potential begins in 2025.